About those Japanese losses . . .
Some readers of Flying Tigers: Claire Chennault and the American Volunteer Group were unhappy that I paid attention to anything the Japanese said about their losses in 1941-1942. Rather than re-examine AVG claims, they prefer to believe that the Japanese lied then and are still lying today. I don't agree, for these reasons:- I've read the American, British, and Japanese accounts, and
I find that they all have the kind of unambiguous detail that
can't be faked. The pilots tell the truth about their losses --
it's only in claiming victories that they go wrong.
- And why not? A commander can come close to 100% accuracy in
counting friendly casualties, but he can't be nearly as certain
about the losses he has inflicted on the enemy. Other things
being equal, you would always be inclined to pay serious
attention to what each side says about its own losses, while
reserving judgment on its combat claims.
- In almost every case I identified the units -- and often the
individual pilots -- who flew against the AVG. For example, on
Christmas Day over Rangoon, the only retractable-gear Japanese
fighters in action were those of the army's 64th Sentai. If the
AVG shot down five "Type 0" fighters that day, then not just
Lieutenant Okuyuma and Sergeant Wakeyama but three other pilots
from the 64th Sentai must have died. Who were they? How did
their earlier victories and promotions vanish from the records of
the groups?
- A man knows when a friend is killed: there is an empty bunk
in the barrack, and a empty seat in the mess, and there are
personal effects to be disposed of. (Including, in the case of
the Japanese, a lock of hair and a fingernail clipping to be sent
home for cremation.) No soldier would trivialize the lives of
his friend by denying that he ever existed -- and that's what he
must do to conceal his loss in combat.
- Even if Japanese officials wanted to fake the records, how
did they manage to control the memories of the survivors? And
how did they carry off this conspiracy through war and peace,
victory and defeat, for half a century? In 1941, Major Kato
wrote in his diary that two pilots failed to return from Rangoon
on Christmas Day. In a book published in 1984, Lieutenant Hinoki
identified them. Hinoki was in the hospital (wounded by R. T.
Smith) when Kato was killed -- so when did they invent the lie?
- The only country I know of that successfully minimized its
combat losses was the Soviet Union -- and only until it fell
apart. The Japanese Empire not only fell apart but was occupied
for several years. Anyhow, Imperial Japan was the least likely
country to attempt such a deception, since it taught that death
in combat was a soldier's duty and privilege.
- The 64th Sentai never had more than 25 fighters in any of
its encounters with the AVG. I found that the AVG destroyed 14
(wastage of 50%). If we take AVG claims at face value, then 49
planes were lost (200% wastage). The 64th was also losing planes
in Malaya and the Dutch Indies. How many times can a fighter
group be wiped out and still turn up over the target?
- Similarly with pilots. Of the 25 men who flew to Rangoon on
Christmas, 9 were shot down by the AVG before the end of April;
10 were lost to accident or to combat elsewhere; and 3
transferred to other groups. That leaves 3 -- including Hinoki
and Sergeant Yasuda, who were still alive when I wrote my book!
The 64th Sentai simply didn't have enough pilots to fly all the
planes claimed by the AVG, and the same is true of other fighter
and bomber groups.
- When there was an event unusual enough to be noted by both
sides, the Allied and Japanese accounts confirm each other:
Parker Dupouy's collision with Okuyuma over Martaban Bay; Neal
Martin's death over Rangoon; the night raider exploded by an RAF
pilot over Mingaladon airport; the heavy-bomber formation wiped
out over South Burma; and on and on.
- When Allied observers actually went out and counted wrecks, they confirmed the Japanese numbers. On December 20, Chinese observers reported 3 Japanese bombers shot down during the battle and 1 crashing later -- just what the Japanese say they lost. From December to March, British scavenger teams located 32 Japanese wrecks in South Burma -- about what would be expected from Japanese accounts. On April 8 at Loiwing, AVG ground crews located 3 wrecks near the airfield -- just what the Japanese said they lost.
First, both sides reported their aircraft losses with surprising accuracy, while wildly overestimating their kills -- the AVG by 150%, the Japanese by 400% This does not mean that anybody was lying. With the exception of the "Emperor's birthday" shoot-out of April 28, I have no trouble reconciling AVG and Japanese accounts where both survive.
(The same is probably true of all air forces in all wars. Do you really believe that Saburo Sakai shot down 64 Allied planes? I suspect that the actual figure was less than 20, to judge by the claiming habits of Japanese navy pilots as shown in John Lundstrom's book, The First Team.... Lundstrom, by the way, found that U.S. navy and marine pilots in 1941-1942 overclaimed by about the same amount as the AVG.)
And second, that the Japanese Army Air Force lost approximately 115 planes and 400 airmen in seven months of fighting the AVG. The cost to the AVG was 14 pilots killed or missing on combat missions. By any standard, that was a victory without comparison in the annals of fighter operations, including those that astonished us over Kuwait and Iraq. AVG veterans should be proud to have their success confirmed in Japanese accounts.
(Written for Aviation History; copyright 1993)
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